排序方式： 共有25条查询结果，搜索用时 62 毫秒
1.
A multi-proxy reconstruction of spatial and temporal variations in Asian summer temperatures over the last millennium 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Feng?Shi Quansheng?GeEmail author Bao?Yang Jianping?Li Fengmei?Yang Fredrik?Charpentier?Ljungqvist Olga?Solomina Takeshi?Nakatsuka Ninglian?Wang Sen?Zhao Chenxi?Xu Keyan?Fang Masaki?Sano Guoqiang?Chu Zexin?Fan Narayan?P.?Gaire Muhammad?Usama?Zafar 《Climatic change》2015,131(4):663-676
To investigate climate variability in Asia during the last millennium, the spatial and temporal evolution of summer (June–July–August; JJA) temperature in eastern and south-central Asia is reconstructed using multi-proxy records and the regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) algorithm with truncated total least squares (TTLS), under a point-by-point regression (PPR) framework. The temperature index reconstructions show that the late 20th century was the warmest period in Asia over the past millennium. The temperature field reconstructions illustrate that temperatures in central, eastern, and southern China during the 11th and 13th centuries, and in western Asia during the 12th century, were significantly higher than those in other regions, and comparable to levels in the 20th century. Except for the most recent warming, all identified warm events showed distinct regional expressions and none were uniform over the entire reconstruction area. The main finding of the study is that spatial temperature patterns have, on centennial time-scales, varied greatly over the last millennium. Moreover, seven climate model simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), over the same region of Asia, are all consistent with the temperature index reconstruction at the 99 % confidence level. Only spatial temperature patterns extracted as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) from the GISS-E2-R and MPI-ESM-P model simulations are significant and consistent with the temperature field reconstruction over the past millennium in Asia at the 90 % confidence level. This indicates that both the reconstruction and the simulations depict the temporal climate variability well over the past millennium. However, the spatial simulation or reconstruction capability of climate variability over the past millennium could be still limited. For reconstruction, some grid points do not pass validation tests and reveal the need for more proxies with high temporal resolution, accurate dating, and sensitive temperature signals, especially in central Asia and before AD 1400. 相似文献
2.
基于1979—2020年逐日的NOAA向外长波辐射资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析风场资料,以及全球CMAP再分析降水资料,探讨了气候态亚洲热带夏季风涌的传播过程及与我国夏季相应的降水联系。分析结果表明,主汛期亚洲热带气候态夏季风季节内振荡(CISO)活动是亚洲夏季风活动的主要特征,随时间北传的亚洲热带夏季风CISO称为亚洲热带夏季风涌,主要有南亚夏季风涌和南海夏季风涌。亚洲热带夏季风涌的传播可分为四个阶段。在亚洲热带夏季风涌的发展阶段,印度洋区域低频气旋与对流活跃,孟加拉湾和南海热带区域被低频东风控制,我国大部分地区无降水发生,降水中心位于两广地区。当进入亚洲热带夏季风涌活跃阶段,孟加拉湾和南海热带地区低频气旋和对流活跃,东亚低频“PJ”波列显著,我国降水中心北移到长江以南的附近区域。亚洲热带夏季风涌减弱阶段,孟加拉湾与南海低频气旋消亡,对流减弱,低频西风加强,日本南部附近为低频反气旋控制,我国长江中下游低频南风活跃,降水中心也北移到长江中下游地区,而华南地区已基本无降水,此阶段的大气低频环流场与亚洲热带夏季风涌发展阶段基本相反。进入亚洲热带夏季风涌间歇阶段时,孟加拉湾和南海热带地区低频反气旋活跃,对流不显著,日本南部附近的低频反气旋北移减弱,我国东部基本在低频南风的控制下,降水中心也逐步北移到华北-朝鲜半岛一带,此时的大气低频环流场与亚洲季风涌活跃阶段基本相反。 相似文献
3.
晏红明 《高原山地气象研究》2022,42(2):1-11
利用1961~2016年云南125个气象观测站逐月降水数据,结合同期NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和英国Hadley中心海表温度资料,在揭示云南5月降水主要模态特征的基础上,分析发现北太平洋、赤道中东太平洋和赤道印度洋是影响云南5月降水的三个主要关键海区,由此定义了对应不同关键区的类PDO指数、类ENSO指数、Dsst指数和Esst指数,进一步探究云南5月降水主要模态与海温异常的关系。结果表明:（1）云南5月降水的主要模态为全区一致型和东西差异型,其中东西差异型模态表现出明显不对称特征,东多西少时的东西差异特征比较明显,而东少西多时西部地区降水偏多的范围很小,主要以中东部地区降水偏少为主。（2）北太平洋地区的类PDO和类ENSO海温异常模态是影响云南降水全区一致型变化的主要因子,类PDO主要影响水汽输送变化,而类ENSO主要影响冷空气活动,即当北美沿岸海温偏低、北太平洋中部海温偏高和赤道中东太平洋海温偏低时,有利于云南全区一致型降水偏多,反之则有利于降水偏少。（3）Dsst指数表征的赤道印度洋海温变化是影响云南降水出现东西差异的主要因子,当印度洋海温偏高时,有利于云南降水西多东少,反之则有利于云南降水西少东多,而Esst指数表征的赤道中东太平洋海温变化却会减弱Dsst指数对降水东西差异型的影响,使云南降水更趋向于全区一致型的变化。 相似文献
4.
Robert J. Zomer Antonio Trabucco Marc J. Metzger Mingcheng Wang Krishna P. Oli Jianchu Xu 《Climatic change》2014,125(3-4):445-460
Rapidly accelerating climate change in the Himalaya is projected to have major implications for montane species, ecosystems, and mountain farming and pastoral systems. A geospatial modeling approach based on a global environmental stratification is used to explore potential impacts of projected climate change on the spatial distribution of bioclimatic strata and ecoregions within the transboundary Kailash Sacred Landscape (KSL) of China, India and Nepal. Twenty-eight strata, comprising seven bioclimatic zones, were aggregated to develop an ecoregional classification of 12 ecoregions (generally defined by their potential dominant vegetation type), based upon vegetation and landcover characteristics. Projected climate change impacts were modeled by reconstructing the stratification based upon an ensemble of 19 Earth System Models (CIMP5) across four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios (i.e. 63 impact simulations), and identifying the change in spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Large and substantial shifts in bioclimatic conditions can be expected throughout the KSL area by the year 2050, within all bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Over 76 % of the total area may shift to a different stratum, 55 % to a different bioclimatic zone, and 36.6 % to a different ecoregion. Potential impacts include upward shift in mean elevation of bioclimatic zones (357 m) and ecoregions (371 m), decreases in area of the highest elevation zones and ecoregions, large expansion of the lower tropical and sub-tropical zones and ecoregions, and the disappearance of several strata representing unique bioclimatic conditions within the KSL, with potentially high levels of biotic perturbance by 2050, and a high likelihood of major consequences for biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, conservation efforts and sustainable development policies in the region. 相似文献
5.
By using heavy coring equipment in two high-altitudinal lakes (1253 and 1316 m a.s.l.) at Dovre, Central Norway, 1–1.5 m of unsorted coarsely minerogenic sediments were retrieved below the Holocene organic sediments. The minerogenic sequence contained well-preserved pollen and chironomid remains, revealing new and detailed palaeoenvironmental knowledge of the mountains in Central Norway during the last 5–6000 years of the Lateglacial (LG) period. However, the LG chronology is based on biostratigraphical correlations and not on 14C-dates, due to low organic content in the minerogenic sediments. The emerging LG nunataks, probably indicating a thin and multi-domed Scandinavian ice-sheet, was rapidly inhabited by immigrating species which could explain the present centric distributions of certain arctic-alpine plants. The LG vegetation development included a pre-interstadial dominated by mineral-soil pioneers, an interstadial dominated by shrubs and dwarf-shrubs, and the Younger Dryas cold period with recurring dominance of pioneers. Pollen and stomata of Pinus and Picea indicate their local LG presence at Dovre. LG climate oscillations are indicated by pollen stratigraphy and for the later part of LG also by chironomids. These oscillations could correspond to Heinrich event 1, GI-1d, GI-1b, and the Younger Dryas cold events. The LG interstadial reached July mean temperatures of more than 7–8 °C, similar to the present. Chironomids colonized the lake already during the onset of the interstadial, albeit at very low richness and abundances. Starting from YD, there are sufficient chironomid head capsules to perform a temperature reconstruction. The Holocene warming of about 2 °C initiated a vegetation closure from snow beds and dwarf-shrub tundra to shrubs and forests. Birch-forests established about 10 ka cal BP, slightly earlier than pine forests. Alnus expanded ca 9.2 ka cal BP and a thinning of the local forests occurred from ca 7 ka cal BP. Two short-lasting climate deteriorations found in the pollen record and the chironomid record may represent the Preboreal Oscillation and the 8.2 event. The Holocene Thermal Maximum is indicated around ca 7.8–7.3 ka cal BP showing a chironomid-inferred July mean of at least 11 °C. This is ca 3 °C warmer than today. 相似文献
6.
利用1948-2002年NCEP/NCAR资料对西南纵向岭谷及其周边区域可降水量做EOF分解,结果表明:无论在于季还是雨季,可降水量的前两个主分量在25°N以北的纵向岭谷地区呈纬向分布特征,其时间序列均有显著的年代际变化.而纵向岭谷地区的实际降水年代际的变化并不显著,其年际变化更为清晰.降水及可降水量多雨年和少雨年的合成分析结果表明:在于季,多雨年和少雨年的可降水量与降水量均存在显著差异,并且在可降水量差值变化梯度越大的区域,降水差异越明显.在雨季,多雨年和少雨年的可降水量差别不大,但降水存在显著的差异.可见,在于季可降水量与实际降水的关系更为直接,较雨季也更为密切. 相似文献
7.
《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2019,43(4):563-578
Two line element (TLE) released by the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) is widely used by aerospace workers, and the matched SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbation Version 4/Simplified Deep-space Perturbation Version 4) model is used to propagate it. Nevertheless, no corresponding information about its accuracy and covariance is clearly given, thus the application of the TLE data is greatly restricted. In this paper, the determined and predicted orbits are compared to generate the orbit error data, based on the historical TLE data obtained from the Space-Track website and the SGP4/SDP4 model. By dividing different time bins, the fitting coefficients of the variation of orbit prediction error with time are given for each space object, and the characteristics of the error evolution are further discussed for the different types of orbits. The mean analytic model of the orbit prediction error evolution with time is given respectively for the four orbit types of space objects, which provides a valuable reference for extending the application of the TLE data. 相似文献
8.
Charlotte G. Cook Richard T. Jones Peter G. Langdon Melanie J. Leng Enlou Zhang 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(7-8):808-820
A ～6.35 m core (06SD) was retrieved from Lake Shudu, Yunnan Province, China. The sediments spanning the period ～22.6–10.5 kcal. yr BP (6.35–1.44 m) were analysed using a combination of variables including pollen, charcoal, particle size, magnetic susceptibility and loss-on-ignition. The resulting palaeorecord provides a high-resolution reconstruction of Late Pleistocene to Early Holocene climatic and environmental changes in southwestern China. Our findings indicate that from c. 22.6 to 17.7 kcal. yr BP, vegetation assemblages were primarily aligned to sparse xerophytic grassland/tundra or cold-tolerant boreal Pinus forest, indicating that climatic conditions in southwestern China were cold and dry. However, from c. 17.7 to 17.4 kcal. yr BP, the Lake Shudu record is punctuated by marked environmental changes. These include the establishment of denser vegetation cover, a marked expansion of boreal Pinus forest and enhanced hydrological activity in the catchment over centennial timescales, perhaps suggesting that stepwise variations in the Asian Monsoon were triggering fundamental environmental changes over sub-millennial timescales. Thereafter, the pollen record captures a period of environmental instability reflected in fluctuations across all of the variables, which persists until c. 17.1 kcal. yr BP. After c. 17.1 kcal. yr BP, the expansion of steppe vegetation cover and cold–cool mixed forest consisting of mesophilous vegetation such as Tsuga and Picea, thermophilous trees including Ulmus and deciduous Quercus inferred from the Lake Shudu pollen record point to the establishment of warmer, wetter and perhaps more seasonal conditions associated with a strengthening Asian Summer Monsoon during the shift from Pleistocene to Holocene climatic conditions. 相似文献
9.
Xiao-Bo Yang Zhen-Feng Ma Ding-Yi Wang Hua-Sheng Yan 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2010,72(11-12):856-863
The spatio–temporal variations of major meridional modes are studied by using the ECMWF and NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed geopotential data between 70 and 10 hPa during 1979 and 2001. The variance contribution rates from the first and second modes are 56–69% and 14–22%, respectively, for ECMWF, but 76–85% and 9–10% for NCEP/NCAR. The climatic trend coefficients are positive and negative in the troposphere and stratosphere, respectively. The reversal is remarkably correlated with the AO/NAM, AAO/SAM and polar vortex, suggesting their important role in connecting the mid-low and upper circulation and the interaction between SH and NH. 相似文献
10.
利用1981-2017年云南125个站逐日降水观测资料和NCEP再分析资料,对比分析了两类El Nino事件期间云南冬季的降水差异,发现东部型El Nino有利于冬季云南大部地区降水显著偏多,而中部型El Nino的影响却不明显。进一步从两类事件相应的大气环流等方面分析了造成降水差异的物理原因。研究表明:(1)东部型El Nino年,Walker环流在西太平洋为异常强的下沉气流,西太平洋副热带高压偏强偏西,Hadley环流在20°N为异常上升气流,造成云南水汽输送和辐合加强,中高纬度巴尔喀什湖和贝加尔湖脊发展,冷空气沿高原东侧南下影响云南,冷暖空气在云南频繁交汇,导致云南冬季降水日数明显偏多,相应降水偏多;(2)中部型El Nino年,Walker环流在西太平洋下沉支强度较东部型弱,相应的西太平洋副热带高压较东部型偏弱偏东,Hadley环流在20°N为下沉气流,对云南区域水汽输送影响较弱,同时中高纬度环流不利于冷空气南下影响云南,除对应冬季云南东部降水日数偏少外,对其他地区降水的影响不明显。 相似文献